I expected fireworks on the second week and we did have great stages and nice results but not the attacks I was expecting. Well, kind of. Movistar did attack here and there, Quintana included, but Froome is still in control. I was expecting more attacks from Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo on Stage 12. If I were a betting person I would have placed a bet on Quintana to won the stage or at least gain back some time, but it was not to be.
The big change we had was that the Big 4 became the Big 5 as Tejay van Garderen from BMC kept himself in the hunt, in particular after BMC won the Team Time Trial.
Nibali is gong backwards and Contador again lost more time.
Froome has one foot on the door, he just needs one final effort and crack it open.
But I still expect that Quintana will try to attack in the Alps. Sky is not looking the invincible team as in earlier stages, but Froome can do it alone.
My prediction is that Quintana will win a stage, either 19 or 20, but unless he attacks and gains time on Stage 19 (I don't believe he can do it before) there will be no chance of beating Froome for the top spot in Paris. And he needs to gain time on 2 stages and only 2 with (high) mountain finishes are left.
As for the rest I got it absolutely right with Sagan, apart that Greipel did fought more than expected. But Sagan pulled up a big one yesterday and today he's again on the breakaway to go and win more points on the intermediate points, And with more than 80 points of advantage, he won't loose the green jersey.
I said it before and will say it again. Sagan seems ever more like a Jalabert-type of rider. Starts as a sprinter, becomes an all-rounder, and one day he will even fight for overall victories on big Tours.
Just look at how well he handled the several Cat 2 climbs yesterday, including the last one that had sections of 13%!
Again final word for the Portuguese riders, and a very quick one: Rui Costa is gone and he wasn't in great shape. I have to wonder if Rui can really fight for the overall classification (Top 10 at least) on the Tour since he seems to suffer always bad days. No doubt he can handle the 3 weeks, as the stage wins on the Alps indicate, but it seems that he always suffers on the second week.
As for the other riders I don't even know how well are they classified. They seem to have been pretty anonymous so far. Bora's Directeur Sportif did mention in a interview that he is expecting José Mendes to perform well in the Alps, so let's wait and see...
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<== First part article || Third part article ==>
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