Cogitation in the Time of War #33 - Maps are worth a thousand claims

I haven't been cogitating much about the war here and this will continue to be the trend, as I will be more involved with other activities from this week onwards and my side projects, namely my dissertation writings, will have to slow down. But still, via Facebook and namely Twitter I continue, and will continue, to share some thoughts, things from the moment, usually a reaction to some development shared online, but coming here and write a thorough and more detailed line of thought, with the references to contextualise will become less frequent.

Cogitation in the Time of War #32 - 100 days of total war have come and gone

It seems I'm not able to gather enough inspiration and motivation (and time, one thing I constantly lack to do all that I want to, and must, do) to sit for a few hours and write a proper cogitation regarding the (more than) 100 days of Putin's (Still Failed) Invasion, with a look back and a new look forward but starting almost exactly with the same words as these, I shared on Twitter some points and the thread got big enough to become itself the Cogitation #32, by copying what I wrote (with a bit more context information and references) and thus having my own essay marking this milestone of 100 days, although it's not really about those 100 days.

Cogitation in the Time of War #31 - About the discussion on the global public arena

Macron and Scholz at a press conference before a meeting in Berlin, back in January 2022. Image taken from this My India First article.

Today is day #97 of Putin's (Still Failed) Invasion of Ukraine; 551 hours and roughly 39 minutes have passed since my previous cogitation and since I haven't cogitated here about the war lately, I was planning to only write when we reached the 100 days milestone, where I would talk about the situation on that day, the previous assessments and again attempt to forecast what will happen next. But during all this time I continue to follow closely, even though the frequency of the news and the frequency of remarks by the people I follow and that I give credibility have also reduced - this is an evidence of a phenomenon I mentioned before, that time normalises a situation, so the war in Ukraine is not such a hot topic as it used to be.

Still as I was writing, I follow closely and today I ended up writing a much longer thread than I had anticipated about a sort of discussion or debate that is being going one in the Twitterverse but also generally in the public arena, or using the direct translation of the portuguese expression, the public square, so now I copy that here for proper documentation.

Cogitation in the Time of War #30 - Victory or Defeat Day?

At the time of writing, we in Western Europe and also the USA are still on May the 8th, the day we celebrate Victory in Europe Day, when it was announced that the Germans had surrendered to the Allies and thus the war in Europe was over. 1 day before, the Germans had signed their Instrument of Surrender, the legal document in Reims where it was stated that fighting was to stop at 23:01 CET of the 8th. This is the main reason why the 8-May is considered the day for people in CET (Central European Timezone) or earlier (further West), because the war stopped officially on that day.

However it was already the 9-May in the Soviet Union when this occurred, and adding to this, the Soviet High Command didn't fully agree with the signing in Reims as they claimed it had to happen at the seat of Germany's government, Berlin. So another gathering occurred on the night of the 8th and a new version of the Instrument of Surrender was signed, the last signature being put to paper on the 9-May, 00:16 local time. These are the main reasons that Russia is celebrating the Victory Day of the Great Patriotic War (as they call WWII) tomorrow, Monday the 9-May, and not today with the rest of the Allies (USA, UK and France, the other countries that alongside USSR controlled a section of Germany after this).

Cogitation in the Time of War #29 - West and East

It's been 7 days since last cogitation and probably it will be another 7 days before I publish the next one. Tis the season of spring holidays (May vacations as they call it here in the Low Countries) and after 2 years of restricted travelling (although we did cross the "big pond" at the end of last summer) we needed this as a family. I also needed to go on a road trip as the other day I realised that driving more than 100 km in a single trip had become a rare occurrence, let alone the more than 1000 km road-trips we did so often before having the kids...

But well, moving one from this personal take, it's time to cogitate a bit about Putin's (Failed) Invasion of Ukraine and how the situation has been developing. Just some thoughts and not a complete coverage of the last days (or even weeks).

Cogitation in the Time of War #28 - About the refugees situation

When I shared in the Cogitation #26 my desire to help more on the humanitarian side, with the most visible aspect being the refugees who arrive here, fleeing from the war, my friend Marisa sent me a warning message where she stated that we need to use caution and common sense. She personally knows of (at least) one case where the family hosting refugee(s) ran into problems and she finds the help countries are providing now to be disproportionate when compared with other refugees from previous years who still face different obstacles and no one seems to care about them anymore. I cannot comment on the specific situation she knows about, as I have no knowledge of the facts (I only know that it happened, not what happened) but to me it's not surprising that situations like this happened and will continue to happen here and there, situations where refugees will abuse the goodwill of those who are helping them; we are talking about people so they are not all angels, some might be demons. And it's also very obvious that with the current crisis there is a much greater willingness on the part of other Europeans to help Ukrainians, when compared to others, but not only this is due to the proximity factor (physical, ethnic, cultural and religious at least) but also this refugee situation is different from the other refugee crisis that Europe has faced before.

Cogitation in the Time of War #27 - The medium-to-long term positive outcome

As I have written several times, twice here on the blog (Cogitation #21 and Cogitation #24) but I think that I have been sharing the same ideas on Facebook and/or Twitter, I've been thinking since the early stages that the final outcome of Putin's Invasion of Ukraine would be very positive in the medium-to-long term  (i.e. it won't be in the first months after the conflict ends) with overall future improvements for all parties involved, including Russia.

But every now and then, and in particular as a result of certain developments that occur, I'm worry that my positive prediction wont happen and that the World will step back a few decades to a new cold war, or even worse. Although when I think about the worst, I go back to a comment my brother made a few weeks ago, who told me that he thought the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 was kind of a natural protection that was given to us to gain more immunity to a new super-pandemic that will appear in a few years: him thinking of a new epidemic like the COVID-19 means that most of us will still be here and didn't go to hell in a nuclear holocaust...

Cogitation in the Time of War #26 - I want(ed) to do more

I've never considered myself one of those people who are ready to jump on top of things and act, but after my volunteering experience, and after noticing my natural reaction to requests for help (sometimes from people I barely know), I think I'm not so passive and indifferent after all. And I never thought I was courageous, even thinking I'm a coward in several frightening situations (although fear is what keeps us safe, when fear doesn't paralyze us, at least).

But since the war in Ukraine started, I've had a feeling of powerlessness, because one thing I believe I always had inside me is that strong sentiment that there comes a time when you have to do something,  to stand up to someone, that you have to get up and be willing to receive the hits but also deliver them. And that's how I've felt since February, 24th. It was almost like a revelation; what awoke in me was a feeling that we were witnessing a crucial moment in our history, something very similar to the invasion of Poland by Nazi Germany, a moment that could bring the return of dark times all over Europe. And I have 2 small children, the last thing I want is for them to have to go through a period and live in a world that is worse than the one I've lived in so far, because if there's one thing I really believe, it's that we always have to aspire for better and more.

Cogitation in the Time of War #25 - Enough with this surrender talk

After finally completing my long take on the (a little more than) 1 month of Putin's Invasion of Ukraine I was ready to start talking less about geo-political and more about the humanitarian side. This was after a conversation (via messaging) with a Polish published writer and journalist that actually has family roots in Ukraine, because it is more relevant to talk about something that really relate to us instead of making all these high level analyses and thoughts, when I don't have the proper experience for that. As the ones that know me for some time are aware, I spend a lot of time studying subjects and always have a strong opinion that I want to share. And although they are not many, there is also those who count on me to keep them up to date in this complicated issues, so I feel the responsibility to continue sharing about what is happening. But in an attempt to avoid misunderstanding, as these texts of mine are my opinion and only my own, most of the times written throughout the day and completed when I'm lying in my couch or bed, I wanted to try and bring less convoluted subjects and stick to what is more important, the basic thing, the one that all of us can relate to: the human suffering.

And all of the sudden the weekend came and all hell broke loose! Russians retreated from the Northwest and Northeast of Kyiv and most of us were hit by a punch to the stomach, when we realised that the human suffering was way worse than we thought!

Cogitation in the Time of War #24 - 34 days later

I was not able to do a detailed analysis on March 24th or 25th, around 1 month since the start of Putin's Invasion of Ukraine. But since February has only 28 days, today the 30th is the 35th day and so I can now look back on the previous 34 days of a war, although there are people who want to call it something else and a former portuguese spy, with a degree in International Law that turned into a despised commentator in the portuguese media, says that under the Law this is not a war because there was no formal declaration of war by either side. As I have written to date 24 pieces here (23 cogitations as I called them, plus the introductory text on the conflict) in addition to the dozens of comments and posts on Facebook and Twitter, I have plenty of material that allows me to recap before doing some new predictions (besides the ones I've made before).

Cogitation in the Time of War #23 - About the latest round of talks in Turkey

Before I write my long dissertation about the (more than) 1 month of Putin's Invasion of Ukraine (I will do it today, that is a promise that I won't break... Maybe... I hope I won't...) let me write a few paragraphs about the recent peace talks in Istanbul between Ukraine and Russia. This is mostly an expanded version of what I wrote yesterday on Twitter and based on a thread from Anastasiia Lapatina (an ukrainian journalists currently in Lviv, if I'm not mistaken) highlighting the main points from the Ukrainian perspective.

As a disclaimer I haven't seen any further news today, so take that into consideration if you see me saying something that doesn't match latest reports.

Cogitation in the Time of War #22 - In war people do bad things

Will Smith decided to hijack the "controversy of the moment" diaspora but now it's time to talk about real crimes that cause real damage.

I'm quoting myself from my Tweet from yesterday (itself a retweet of another retweet) but you can go and have a look because the original one shows a video of what appears to be Ukrainian troops shooting the legs of Russian prisoners: 

This needs to be investigated. If there are more reports and POW testimony that Ukrainian forces are shooting prisoners after capture this is a war crime and needs the proper punishment.

Cogitation in the Time of War #21 - It began 1 month ago

Just throwing a curve ball here to let you guys know there's (at least) one video on YouTube "showing evidences" that the aliens 👽 are helping Ukraine because they are attacking Russian equipment and troops.

And if you decide to engage in that discussion, please notice that the term UFO is no longer used by officials nor the scientific community, now it's UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena).

As made famous by that TV show from the 90s with a pair of FBI agents: I want to believe...

Cogitation in the Time of War #20 - In regards to the West sending "newer" weapons

I wrote this the other day on Twitter, and wrote it there because it's on Twitter that I have seen several personalities, from annalists and politicians to public figures, all over the so-called West, "demanding" that the US stop with trying to find weapons in other countries to send to Ukraine and just send their owen advanced weapons systems, such as Patriot SAM systems or F-16 fighter jets, and even demanding Israel as well to send their own Iron Dome air defense system.

But I must admit that I can't really understand why so many people, some of who shoudl really know better, continue to think that the West (or any other country) can simply send an advanced weapons system (fighter jets, air defense, coastal defense) to Ukraine and that its military can simply pick them up and just start to use it, like they have been using the systems they currently have! These systems are not like a more advanced vacuum cleaner, or a better armed and better armored military jeep, that ukrainians just set it up, turn it on and start using. 

Cogitation in the Time of War #19 - A controversial, yet justified, strike

At least twice I used Russian sources to make/pass an argument; one time in the cogitation #7 and another in a Facebook comment about an interview to a retired Portuguese major-general that should be a military expert but (yet again) made completely wrong statements about the military situation in Ukraine. But most of times I point out the flaws of the Russian sources' statements and claims. I don't use the Russian sources when it suits my agenda. I don't have an agenda per se; I have no issues in saying I want Putin to lose and see Russia (because Putin ordered it) as the aggressor. What I really want is try to share my view on the war, including facts that are of course clouded by the "fog of war" (I have to write about this and other concepts that exist during a conflict that are important for us, normal citizens, to know about).

Cogitation in the Time of War #18 - Still on the topic of Nazism in Ukraine

It's a feeling that I have, from stuff I've seen and read way before Putin's Invasion began (almost 1 month ago), but I think that this sentiment the russians have that Ukraine has a problem with fascism and nazism is an old one; meaning that there are many russians that for a long time are suspicious of ukrainians and thus they fully believe the current narrative that the ukrainian government is controlled by neo-nazis and neo-fascists. And I believe this stems from events of World War II, in the Eastern Front.

Cogitation in the Time of War #17 - The Azov Regiment & Co.

After all this time, since the first days of the invasion and the first reactions from the "opposition (the so-called contrarians) and after I promised in the Cogitation #12 to write in more detail, Let's finally talk, and dissert, about the Azov Regiment and other extremists in the region.

Cogitation in the Time of War #16 - The mysterious case of the crashed drone in Zagreb

My wife Carolina watches the Portuguese news online. Because of that she is usually a couple of days behind the events as the news usually report what has happened in the previous 24 hours or so and then we add the 1~2 days delay when she actually sees them. So I guess she is starting to get annoyed of hearing me saying "oh that is old news, it happened a while already" when I overhear something or when she comes to talk about a development in the Putin's Invasion of Ukraine.

Cogitation in the Time of War #15 - Lying Lavrov

To summarize, and attempt to make sense, of some of things officially said by Russia, in particular by Lying Lavrov and his diplomatic staff located all over the world.

Russia DIDN'T ATTACK Ukraine, it is a "special military operation" after all, and it "operated" for the following reasons:

Cogitation in the Time of War #14 - A new take on combat losses

Those following me, or are my friends, on Facebook might have noticed, that "coverage" of Putin's Invasion of Ukraine has decreased both in frequency and in intensity. Even in the blog there's a break of more than 48 hours. That also happens because the flux of tweets (it has been my main source of info, by following a couple of relevant and trustworthy accounts, plus a couple of Ukrainian journalists for some more details coming straight from the field) is much lower now. I guess this is normal as the initial shock is now over, the second week of fighting has passed, and the operation is moving slower so there is less changes every day. It somehow stabilised and that lowers the intensity of the outside interest. Time also normalises a situation, so there's that as well.