02 March 2022

Cogitation in the Time of War #7 - Was this a premature glimpse of a future?



RIA Novosti  is a Russian state-owned domestic news agency, that belongs to Rossiya Segodnya,  owned and operated by the Russian government.
On the 26-February, a little more than 48 hours after the start of the so-called "special military operation" by Putin's Russia, an article was published on the RIA Novosti website entitled "The new world order". This article was later taken down but it was up long enough for it to be saved under WebArchive. An English version of it was also shared around the same time in a Pakistani-based website named The Frontier Post and that page is still available.
The article gives an explanation for the invasion and in a way it gives the main reason behind it. It is very much aligned to Putin's speech from the 21-February, where he mentioned the need to correct the errors from the past in regards to Ukraine that, in his own words, was not a real country.

It is true that NATO, and its Eastwards expansion, is one of the main reasons for the invasion, but it's not even the first of the list as it is stated, and I quote:
"And the issue of national security, that is, the creation of anti-Russia out of Ukraine and an outpost for the West to put pressure on us, is only the second most important among them.
The first would always be the complex of a divided people, the complex of national humiliation – when the Russian house first lost part of its foundation (Kyiv), and then was forced to come to terms with the existence of two states, not one, but two peoples.
(...)
Returning Ukraine, that is, turning it back to Russia, would be more and more difficult with every decade – recoding, de-Russification of Russians and inciting Ukrainian Little Russians against Russians would gain momentum.
(...)
Now this problem is gone – Ukraine has returned to Russia. This does not mean that its statehood will be liquidated, but it will be reorganized, re-established and returned to its natural state as a part of the Russian world.".

Ultimately this was all about Power and creating a new Great Russia that could really rival again with the US as the old USSR did. This was supposed to be Putin's legacy.

Note that the fact the article from RIA was taken down, shows it was not just an opinion article by the person who wrote it. This was a propaganda article from the Russian government and when it was supposed to be up (and shared internally in Russia) Kyiv was supposed to be controlled so it was a "done deal" even though the operation was not completed yet (as evidenced by the mentions to Russians and Ukrainians killing each other).

When I shared this initially on Facebook, a friend of mine asked me if I thought that a propaganda piece was now credible just because it matched my convictions. It was a good question because we have the tendency to believe in something that validates our own beliefs, the confirmation bias. But after an introspect I don't think this is the case. At the time I first read this article, I was even of the opinion that the main motives were economic (as mentioned in the Cogitation #4).
Even though I agree that usually this pieces are pure propaganda from the Kremlin, and that we should be very suspicious of whatever is written there, I'm also of the opinion that this particular article reveals part of the real motives, because even Putin himself sometimes shows a glimpse of what he truly thinks and believes. Just like his speech broadcasted on the 24-Feb announcing the invasion (or "special military operation" per his own words) but there are strong evidences that it was recorded on the 21st, meaning together with his previous speech where he rants about Ukraine and the past, this article in RIA seems to have been written in advance, following the same orientating lines as the first speech, but was published prematurely, like I write on top, since the government was convinced that by then victory was assured.

Since I'm not really following the mainstream media, I'm not sure of how much this has been talked about. But everyone should be aware of the article and read it.
I do know that for some people with strong beliefs in regards to NATO and Putin and this all situation, this article will most likely just confirm their belief, regardless if you think the Putin's at fault or the West is at fault.
As I wrote above, in my case, it changed again my opinion, that at first was similar to what is written here (using a more generic advantage, it was greed), then I thought it was more complex and also about economical resources (oil & gas, and agriculture) and now it is back again to a more simple question of Power, or as some have mentioned Imperialism to oppose what they, and many perceive, to be US/West Imperialism.

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