01 March 2022

Cogitation in the Time of War #6 - Shocking and surreal


In addition to the videos and photos in the social media, including TikTok, of civilians stealing/recovering russian military equipment, with the emphasis on the Ukrainian farmers towing armoured vehicles among others, I'm in awe with what I just seen on Twitter.
Putin's Russia has been using analog radio communication in their operation and there is a worldwide community of radio amateurs and translators that are listening and documenting their comms; they are also jamming the frequencies thus disturbing even further the operations on the field. This group alone already have hours of comms and will share them online at some point!
More details on this can be seen in this tweet.
I will use again an adjective that will probably become one of the 2 words to define my reaction to this entire conflict: shocking!
Together with the OSINT (Open-Source Intelligence) community, and the Anonymous collective, we have several civilian groups "fighting" a non-kinetic action against Putin's Russia. Surreal!

Doing now a little retrospective, I wrote the following more than 48 hours ago (Cogitation #3):
It seems that today and possibly tomorrow is "make or break". I have said for previous nights I was expecting it to become very ugly in the cities, mainly Kyiv, and it was crucial and now I'm saying the same again so of course I'm just guessing, as many others do. But one thing for sure, what happens today and early tomorrow will either confirm or disprove one of the theories behind the Russian plans and shortcoming.

It started to get ugly in some cities with more widespread artillery strikes (more civilian areas hit). But now it is clear to me that the theory I was talking about has been disproven; that theory was that Russia couldn't really sustain a long operation due to lack of enough operational assets and logistics, so they had to achieve most, if not all, their main goals in few days.
The fact that Russia is committing more assets and seems to be correcting their tactics (no longer doing the unsupported "thunder pushes") contradicts that claim.

In the meantime already some unconfirmed reports that Belarusian troops entered Ukraine (Chernihiv Oblast). It seems that Lukashenka is trying to play on both courts until he seems what is the winning situation (for him)...

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