Doing now a little retrospective, I wrote the following more than 48 hours ago (Cogitation #3):
It seems that today and possibly tomorrow is "make or break". I have said for previous nights I was expecting it to become very ugly in the cities, mainly Kyiv, and it was crucial and now I'm saying the same again so of course I'm just guessing, as many others do. But one thing for sure, what happens today and early tomorrow will either confirm or disprove one of the theories behind the Russian plans and shortcoming.
It started to get ugly in some cities with more widespread artillery strikes (more civilian areas hit). But now it is clear to me that the theory I was talking about has been disproven; that theory was that Russia couldn't really sustain a long operation due to lack of enough operational assets and logistics, so they had to achieve most, if not all, their main goals in few days.
The fact that Russia is committing more assets and seems to be correcting their tactics (no longer doing the unsupported "thunder pushes") contradicts that claim.
In the meantime already some unconfirmed reports that Belarusian troops entered Ukraine (Chernihiv Oblast). It seems that Lukashenka is trying to play on both courts until he seems what is the winning situation (for him)...
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