It's been 7 days since last cogitation and probably it will be another 7 days before I publish the next one. Tis the season of spring holidays (May vacations as they call it here in the Low Countries) and after 2 years of restricted travelling (although we did cross the "big pond" at the end of last summer) we needed this as a family. I also needed to go on a road trip as the other day I realised that driving more than 100 km in a single trip had become a rare occurrence, let alone the more than 1000 km road-trips we did so often before having the kids...
But well, moving one from this personal take, it's time to cogitate a bit about Putin's (Failed) Invasion of Ukraine and how the situation has been developing. Just some thoughts and not a complete coverage of the last days (or even weeks).
As the title suggests, the main outcome of the recent developments is that we have now a truly divisive scenario, with a clear division and two clear sides: West and East.
As it had been announced, Russia is focusing on the East (also a bit Southeast) of Ukraine so that's where almost all of the action on the field is occurring, although not much is really happening. Lot's of fighting reported, smaller gains here and there but for both sides. As I predicted 1 month ago (last section of Cogitation #24) Russians are not making any significant gains and Ukrainians already proven they can counterattack and recover terrain themselves.
And this without the significant higher level of assistance coming from the West, with NATO countries, led by the US, are committing heavier weaponry that will make a huge impact in the coming weeks, no doubt about it.
And going back to the East, they took another step closer on becoming the new incarnation of the Russian Empire (or the USSR), the so-called Greater Russia that was described in that RIA Novosti article, with Belarus' Lukashenka recently talking again about implementing the Union State and asking for former Soviet states to join them. On top of that we are seeing more and more the talks on Russian TV mentioning that this supposed "special operation" is actually a war against the West (NATO), even stating it is sort of Holy War (and they are the forces of Good) and because everything is at stake, they have to go nuclear!
As the title suggests, the main outcome of the recent developments is that we have now a truly divisive scenario, with a clear division and two clear sides: West and East.
As it had been announced, Russia is focusing on the East (also a bit Southeast) of Ukraine so that's where almost all of the action on the field is occurring, although not much is really happening. Lot's of fighting reported, smaller gains here and there but for both sides. As I predicted 1 month ago (last section of Cogitation #24) Russians are not making any significant gains and Ukrainians already proven they can counterattack and recover terrain themselves.
And this without the significant higher level of assistance coming from the West, with NATO countries, led by the US, are committing heavier weaponry that will make a huge impact in the coming weeks, no doubt about it.
And going back to the East, they took another step closer on becoming the new incarnation of the Russian Empire (or the USSR), the so-called Greater Russia that was described in that RIA Novosti article, with Belarus' Lukashenka recently talking again about implementing the Union State and asking for former Soviet states to join them. On top of that we are seeing more and more the talks on Russian TV mentioning that this supposed "special operation" is actually a war against the West (NATO), even stating it is sort of Holy War (and they are the forces of Good) and because everything is at stake, they have to go nuclear!
I admit that I previously only considered that this desire to recreate the Russian Empire was mainly Putin's own vision and legacy, with the support of his elite. I thought the people just wanted to live a good life and were aware that these actions and this glorious plan would be more damaging, but I was wrong. There is actually a lot more support to the invasion and to this vision of the Greater Russia than I imagined.
First, we western europeans don't know what is like to live close to Russia and the experience of living several decades under Soviet control (and Russia was the producer, director and leading actor of the Soviet Union). After getting to know more opinions from people from that region, including an extensive chat with a Polish author whose family also came from Ukraine, I started to notice that it is part of the Russian culture to hold their neighbours in a special consideration. And we have already several proofs of that, with the examples of russians that live in the West and act in disdain towards ukrainians, like sports people (supporting Putin and the war or simply complaining on how it's unfair to them and not even showing compassion to their ukrainian colleagues) and the example of the former russian teacher in Sweden that verbally attacked an ukrainian young woman. One can say that these are exceptions, but to me these are the signs that are increasingly showing up that proves the warnings we had for many ears from our central and eastern european neighbours about Russia's ambitions were spot on, and we further west just dismissed them because we really didn't know better and were too eager to make amends.
First, we western europeans don't know what is like to live close to Russia and the experience of living several decades under Soviet control (and Russia was the producer, director and leading actor of the Soviet Union). After getting to know more opinions from people from that region, including an extensive chat with a Polish author whose family also came from Ukraine, I started to notice that it is part of the Russian culture to hold their neighbours in a special consideration. And we have already several proofs of that, with the examples of russians that live in the West and act in disdain towards ukrainians, like sports people (supporting Putin and the war or simply complaining on how it's unfair to them and not even showing compassion to their ukrainian colleagues) and the example of the former russian teacher in Sweden that verbally attacked an ukrainian young woman. One can say that these are exceptions, but to me these are the signs that are increasingly showing up that proves the warnings we had for many ears from our central and eastern european neighbours about Russia's ambitions were spot on, and we further west just dismissed them because we really didn't know better and were too eager to make amends.
What we are in fact witnessing is a real ideological war, between our (West) typical way (democracy and freedom values, as flawed as they are, and also globalism) VS the authoritarian and imperialistic (how ironic) and mainly nationalistic way as seen in Russia and its people.
And this is not a recent thing, it's centuries old, hence the reason for this (Failed) Invasion to be the first step of a proper ideological conflict, like the Cold War was. And the outcome will be exactly the same.
Cold War ended Soviet Union; this new one (I have a couple of names for it, but let's see what society will name it later) will end Russia (as we know it).
And this is not a recent thing, it's centuries old, hence the reason for this (Failed) Invasion to be the first step of a proper ideological conflict, like the Cold War was. And the outcome will be exactly the same.
Cold War ended Soviet Union; this new one (I have a couple of names for it, but let's see what society will name it later) will end Russia (as we know it).
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