Cogitation in the Time of War #24 - 34 days later

I was not able to do a detailed analysis on March 24th or 25th, around 1 month since the start of Putin's Invasion of Ukraine. But since February has only 28 days, today the 30th is the 35th day and so I can now look back on the previous 34 days of a war, although there are people who want to call it something else and a former portuguese spy, with a degree in International Law that turned into a despised commentator in the portuguese media, says that under the Law this is not a war because there was no formal declaration of war by either side. As I have written to date 24 pieces here (23 cogitations as I called them, plus the introductory text on the conflict) in addition to the dozens of comments and posts on Facebook and Twitter, I have plenty of material that allows me to recap before doing some new predictions (besides the ones I've made before).

Cogitation in the Time of War #23 - About the latest round of talks in Turkey

Before I write my long dissertation about the (more than) 1 month of Putin's Invasion of Ukraine (I will do it today, that is a promise that I won't break... Maybe... I hope I won't...) let me write a few paragraphs about the recent peace talks in Istanbul between Ukraine and Russia. This is mostly an expanded version of what I wrote yesterday on Twitter and based on a thread from Anastasiia Lapatina (an ukrainian journalists currently in Lviv, if I'm not mistaken) highlighting the main points from the Ukrainian perspective.

As a disclaimer I haven't seen any further news today, so take that into consideration if you see me saying something that doesn't match latest reports.

Cogitation in the Time of War #22 - In war people do bad things

Will Smith decided to hijack the "controversy of the moment" diaspora but now it's time to talk about real crimes that cause real damage.

I'm quoting myself from my Tweet from yesterday (itself a retweet of another retweet) but you can go and have a look because the original one shows a video of what appears to be Ukrainian troops shooting the legs of Russian prisoners: 

This needs to be investigated. If there are more reports and POW testimony that Ukrainian forces are shooting prisoners after capture this is a war crime and needs the proper punishment.

Cogitation in the Time of War #21 - It began 1 month ago

Just throwing a curve ball here to let you guys know there's (at least) one video on YouTube "showing evidences" that the aliens 👽 are helping Ukraine because they are attacking Russian equipment and troops.

And if you decide to engage in that discussion, please notice that the term UFO is no longer used by officials nor the scientific community, now it's UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena).

As made famous by that TV show from the 90s with a pair of FBI agents: I want to believe...

Cogitation in the Time of War #20 - In regards to the West sending "newer" weapons

I wrote this the other day on Twitter, and wrote it there because it's on Twitter that I have seen several personalities, from annalists and politicians to public figures, all over the so-called West, "demanding" that the US stop with trying to find weapons in other countries to send to Ukraine and just send their owen advanced weapons systems, such as Patriot SAM systems or F-16 fighter jets, and even demanding Israel as well to send their own Iron Dome air defense system.

But I must admit that I can't really understand why so many people, some of who shoudl really know better, continue to think that the West (or any other country) can simply send an advanced weapons system (fighter jets, air defense, coastal defense) to Ukraine and that its military can simply pick them up and just start to use it, like they have been using the systems they currently have! These systems are not like a more advanced vacuum cleaner, or a better armed and better armored military jeep, that ukrainians just set it up, turn it on and start using. 

Cogitation in the Time of War #19 - A controversial, yet justified, strike

At least twice I used Russian sources to make/pass an argument; one time in the cogitation #7 and another in a Facebook comment about an interview to a retired Portuguese major-general that should be a military expert but (yet again) made completely wrong statements about the military situation in Ukraine. But most of times I point out the flaws of the Russian sources' statements and claims. I don't use the Russian sources when it suits my agenda. I don't have an agenda per se; I have no issues in saying I want Putin to lose and see Russia (because Putin ordered it) as the aggressor. What I really want is try to share my view on the war, including facts that are of course clouded by the "fog of war" (I have to write about this and other concepts that exist during a conflict that are important for us, normal citizens, to know about).

Cogitation in the Time of War #18 - Still on the topic of Nazism in Ukraine

It's a feeling that I have, from stuff I've seen and read way before Putin's Invasion began (almost 1 month ago), but I think that this sentiment the russians have that Ukraine has a problem with fascism and nazism is an old one; meaning that there are many russians that for a long time are suspicious of ukrainians and thus they fully believe the current narrative that the ukrainian government is controlled by neo-nazis and neo-fascists. And I believe this stems from events of World War II, in the Eastern Front.

Cogitation in the Time of War #17 - The Azov Regiment & Co.

After all this time, since the first days of the invasion and the first reactions from the "opposition (the so-called contrarians) and after I promised in the Cogitation #12 to write in more detail, Let's finally talk, and dissert, about the Azov Regiment and other extremists in the region.

Cogitation in the Time of War #16 - The mysterious case of the crashed drone in Zagreb

My wife Carolina watches the Portuguese news online. Because of that she is usually a couple of days behind the events as the news usually report what has happened in the previous 24 hours or so and then we add the 1~2 days delay when she actually sees them. So I guess she is starting to get annoyed of hearing me saying "oh that is old news, it happened a while already" when I overhear something or when she comes to talk about a development in the Putin's Invasion of Ukraine.

Cogitation in the Time of War #15 - Lying Lavrov

To summarize, and attempt to make sense, of some of things officially said by Russia, in particular by Lying Lavrov and his diplomatic staff located all over the world.

Russia DIDN'T ATTACK Ukraine, it is a "special military operation" after all, and it "operated" for the following reasons:

Cogitation in the Time of War #14 - A new take on combat losses

Those following me, or are my friends, on Facebook might have noticed, that "coverage" of Putin's Invasion of Ukraine has decreased both in frequency and in intensity. Even in the blog there's a break of more than 48 hours. That also happens because the flux of tweets (it has been my main source of info, by following a couple of relevant and trustworthy accounts, plus a couple of Ukrainian journalists for some more details coming straight from the field) is much lower now. I guess this is normal as the initial shock is now over, the second week of fighting has passed, and the operation is moving slower so there is less changes every day. It somehow stabilised and that lowers the intensity of the outside interest. Time also normalises a situation, so there's that as well.

Cogitation in the Time of War #13 - 8 years of War in Donbas

Antes de passar ao tópico da dissertação queria dizer 2 coisas:

1. Happy International Women's Day, in particular to the warrior women of Ukraine.
3. "In war, truth is the first casualty" (please watch this video); and I just like to add that the winners are the ones that write the History books.

Let's move on to the issue at hand, the 8 year period since March 2014 till Putin's Invasion, a period during which Ukraine and Russia were already at war but unofficially.

Cogitation in the Time of War #12 - Symbologies

The Z letter seen on the Russian vehicles that invaded Ukraine is by now likely familiar to everyone. It even became a symbol in both Russia, where it is used by those supporting Putin and his "special military operation", and in Ukraine as a symbol for tyranny, in the same way that the swastika was a symbol for the Nazi Germany as seen on the collage on top.

Cogitation in the Time of War #11 - Tomorrow is Sunday

Personally it was a nice day for me. It's still cold at night but the sun has been out and shining for 4 days now. We inaugurated the barbecue season, with a mix of meats but also sardines. I spent almost the entire afternoon without checking my phone for news on Putin's Invasion.

The only downside today was that my bicycle's chain broke cycling home (3rd consecutive mechanic failure when riding with my son).

Cogitation in the Time of War #10 - The boys inside the tanks

Yesterday shared on Facebook a video of an allegedly Russian tank being hit/destroyed by an anti-tank missile fired by the Ukrainian forces (the view point is from the sighter, or visor, from the launcher) and I wrote the following joke (now slightly improved):
- Dad, what did you hunt for dinner today?
- A tank, son.
- And can we eat it?
- Not sure, I guess. The turret is already fully cooked.

From the comments on the different Twitter threads where I saw the video being shared, and since the tank seems to be stuck, I simply assumed that it had been abandoned. I did the joke when sharing it myself because it didn't cross my mind that the video could be directly showing the death of the tank's crew (at least the 2 that sit in the turret).
But that was a assumption not a certainty. I didn't remove the post because I couldn't verify later more details on the video and the strike's outcome. I actually encountered some comments claiming that what we see is a sort of bunker and not even a tank! Anyways, this video and my post generated 2 interesting reactions (via comments) that I decided to expand in a dedicated cogitation.

Cogitation in the Time of War #9 - Die of the cure?

This might be mostly based on personal perception but it seems that the general opposing, or the contrarians, view, (as opposed to the main line from Western governments) moved from "NATO caused this war by expanding and forcing Putin's end" to "NATO is leaving Ukraine alone to fight and must do something". Then the "opposition" asks for a no-fly zone (something they picked up somewhere but have no clue about what it really is) or even asks for troops on the ground.

Cogitation in the Time of War #8 - A meme, a summary and a personal thought

The image above is a new Russian meme, apparently doing the rounds in Moscow. Part of the photo widely shared all over the world, with Puting meeting his top 2 generals (Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff) but them sitting opposite ends of the (extremely) long table

This is a translation of the text (since I don't know Russian nor cyrillic) to English:

- "You are sitting closer to him. Hit [the fuck out of] him with something."

- "Hit him with what, from 20 meters?"

But day #8 of Putin's Invasion of Ukraine is gone and I'm just sharing some thoughts before going to bed.

Cogitation in the Time of War #7 - Was this a premature glimpse of a future?

RIA Novosti  is a Russian state-owned domestic news agency, that belongs to Rossiya Segodnya,  owned and operated by the Russian government.

On the 26-February, a little more than 48 hours after the start of the so-called "special military operation" by Putin's Russia, an article was published on the RIA Novosti website entitled "The new world order". This article was later taken down but it was up long enough for it to be saved under WebArchive. An English version of it was also shared around the same time in a Pakistani-based website named The Frontier Post and that page is still available.

The article gives an explanation for the invasion and in a way it gives the main reason behind it. It is very much aligned to Putin's speech from the 21-February, where he mentioned the need to correct the errors from the past in regards to Ukraine that, in his own words, was not a real country.

Gone with the War

One week ago I was planning to write a text about a prediction I made 7 years ago (February 24, 2015) in regards to electric cars. I'd already thought and structured the text in my head and even made a research to confirm the data but with the daily stuff hadn't found the time to sit at the computer and start writing it down. The main reason behind writing about this subject was to not keep banging on the same key over and over about the usual subject, the pandemic. But in reality I still had a draft about the pandemic, namely about its announced ending and what was coming with it, almost like a season finale as I wasn't planning to return to it for weeks and months to come.

But then the war came and all plans went up in smoke...

Cogitation in the Time of War #6 - Shocking and surreal

In addition to the videos and photos in the social media, including TikTok, of civilians stealing/recovering russian military equipment, with the emphasis on the Ukrainian farmers towing armoured vehicles among others, I'm in awe with what I just seen on Twitter.

Putin's Russia has been using analog radio communication in their operation and there is a worldwide community of radio amateurs and translators that are listening and documenting their comms; they are also jamming the frequencies thus disturbing even further the operations on the field. This group alone already have hours of comms and will share them online at some point!

More details on this can be seen in this tweet.

I will use again an adjective that will probably become one of the 2 words to define my reaction to this entire conflict: shocking!

Together with the OSINT (Open-Source Intelligence) community, and the Anonymous collective, we have several civilian groups "fighting" a non-kinetic action against Putin's Russia. Surreal!